AI-DRIVEN COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 VACCINE EFFICACY IN ADULT POPULATIONS

Abstract

The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic necessitated rapid development and deployment of multiple COVID-19 vaccines. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of currently available vaccines in preventing symptomatic and severe COVID-19 among adult populations, with a focus on both general and elderly cohorts. A systematic review of prominent medical databases up to August 30, 2021, was performed, including published phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported vaccine efficacy against symptomatic and severe disease. Data extraction and independent verification were conducted by two reviewers, and risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool. A network meta-analysis (NMA) following PRISMA-NMA guidelines was performed to allow indirect comparison across vaccines. The NMA incorporated data from nearly 200,000 adult participants across eight phase 3 RCTs. Indirect comparisons revealed that the mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 demonstrated the highest efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, followed by GamCOVID-Vac, NVX-CoV2373, and CoronaVac. For severe disease, mRNA-1273 and GamCOVID-Vac showed the strongest protective trends, although differences between vaccines were not statistically significant. Among elderly populations, vaccine performance against symptomatic infection showed no significant differences across products. These findings provide critical insight for public health decision-making, highlighting the superior performance of mRNA-based vaccines while acknowledging logistical, cost, and patient preference considerations.